2012 Oscar Predictions By Jason Kline
2012 Oscar Predictions
By Jason Kline
@jaskline2007
Best Picture
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Will Win: The Artist (runner up: The Help)
Should Win: The Descendants (War Horse)
Should Have Been Nominated: Warrior (Carnage)
The Artist is a great movie that is just so unique this day in age. It is a silent, black and white French film about the transition from silent films to “talkies” towards the beginning of the 20th century. It won at the Producer’s Guild and the BAFTA (the British equivalent of the Academy Awards) and has been the film to beat for months. It also has the whole Weinstein factor going for it which is huge. Hugo received the most nominations of the group (11), but has no momentum going for it. If one film can upset The Artist, it’s The Help which won the Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild. It is an “actor’s movie,” a la Driving Miss Daisy back in the day. However, I just don’t see it happening. Sadly, The Descendants is all but dead. The others are just happy to be there.
Best Director
Woody Allen for “Midnight in Paris”
Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist”
Terrence Malick for “The Tree of Life”
Alexander Payne for “The Descendants”
Martin Scorsese for “Hugo”
Will Win: Hazanavicius (Scorsese)
Should Win: Hazanavicius (Allen)
Should Have Been Nominated: Steven Spielberg for “War Horse” (Roman Polanski for “Carnage”)
Hazanavicius won the Director’s Guild Award which is the most important factor. The last time a director won the award and didn’t go on to win the Oscar was back in 2002 when Rob Marshall won for Chicago but lost to Roman Polanski for The Pianist. Scorsese won the Golden Globe and the National Board of Review, but that’s about it. Malick could also upset. He’s done it before. He is beloved by his peers and much more so than the lesser know Hazanavicius. Once considered the favorites to win, both Scorsese and Malick have just an outside shot now. This is Hazanavicius’ to lose.
Best Actor
Demian Bechir for “A Better Life”
George Clooney for “The Descendants”
Jean Dujardin for “The Artist”
Gary Oldman for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy”
Brad Pitt for “Moneyball”
Will Win: Dujardin (Clooney)
Should Win: Clooney (Pitt)
Should Have Been Nominated: Michael Fassbender for “Shame” (Mel Gibson for “The Beaver”)
This was once the hardest race to predict, as four of the five nominees have a legitimate shot at winning, but it has cleared up substantially as of late. My gut still tells me Clooney, but my brain tells me Dujardin. Clooney won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice, but Dujardin won the BAFTA and the extremely important SAG, which was a bit of a shock when it was announced. The Academy loves George Clooney and Dujardin is not yet a household name. On the other hand, there hasn’t been a SAG/Oscar split since 2003 when Johnny Depp won the SAG for the first Pirates of the Caribbean but lost to Sean Penn for Mystic River. Brad Pitt has also won his fair share of precursors and is also beloved by his actor peers. He has never won before and many say this was his best performance of his career. The Academy may want to finally reward him. Oldman is a veteran actor who has been snubbed numerous times throughout his career. Now that he has finally been nominated, they may want to go ahead and reward him accordingly. In the end, however, the Frenchman will walk away victorious.
Best Actress
Glenn Close for “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis for “The Help”
Rooney Mara for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”
Meryl Streep for “The Iron Lady”
Michelle Williams for “My Week with Marilyn”
Will Win: Davis (Streep)
Should Win: Streep (Mara)
Should Have Been Nominated: Jessica Chastain for “The Debt” (Isabelle Blais for “The High Cost of Living”)
This has quickly become the most interesting race of them all. Davis is one of the most popular actresses in Hollywood. Everyone seems to love her. She won the SAG to a standing ovation. However, Streep beat Davis for the Globe and the BAFTA. This is now a lot closer than it was a month ago. I still think Davis will win though. If she loses, it will be because the Academy is dying to give Meryl her long-awaited third Oscar. If Davis and Streep split votes, Glenn Close could sneak in and win, as she is another one many think is long overdue for recognition with her five nominations and no wins. Albert Nobbs was a passion project for Close and her peers could award her for that and her illustrious career. Williams and Mara are still young and will have to wait another year.
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh for “My Week with Marilyn”
Jonah Hill for “Moneyball”
Nick Nolte for “Warrior”
Christopher Plummer for “Beginners”
Max von Sydow for “Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close”
Will Win: Plummer (von Sydow)
Should Win: Nolte (Hill)
Should Have Been Nominated: Anton Yelchin for “The Beaver” (Phillip Seymour Hoffman for “The Ides of March”)
This is basically a battle of the 82-year-old veterans. Plummer has been winning the award left and right all season, including the SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and National Board of Review. Von Sydow was a surprise nomination, as was his film for Best Picture. I think Plummer is a lock, but von Sydow will definitely steal some votes since he has only one nomination in a career that includes 145 acting credits. Poor Max. Any other year and he probably would have been a lock for the win. Plummer has this in the bag.
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo for “The Artist”
Jessica Chastain for “The Help”
Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids”
Janet McTeer for “Arthur Nobbs”
Octavia Spencer for “The Help”
Will Win: Spencer (Bejo)
Should Win: Chastain (Bejo)
Should Have Been Nominated: Keira Knightly for “A Dangerous Method” (Carey Mulligan for “Shame”)
Spencer is now the clear frontrunner after her Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice wins. However, I am not as sure her win is a “lock” as much as most people. The Artist could very well sweep Bejo in if it wins big on Oscar night. The love for the film seems to be growing exponentially. McCarthy is the only other realistic possibility. She is a popular actress who stole every scene she was in in Bridesmaids. Her film is nominated for Best Original Screenplay which helps, and the Academy could reward her comedic performance much like they did Marissa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny in 1992. Chastain will split with Spencer and McTeer is just happy to have made the nomination cut. Keep an eye on this category. Crazier things have happened in the past (see Tomei, Marissa).